THE PHENOM CRYPTO LETTER

GM,

Welcome to the Phenom Crypto Letter Weekly Update. Scroll through and catch up on everything that has been going on this week in the crypto markets.

Here’s what we’ve got this week:

Jump to :

• Market Rundown

• 5 Bitcoin Macro Signals

• Reading Corner

• Blockbuzz

• Crypto Twitter

• Memes

MARKET RUNDOWN

Market continue to grind up this week with top assets seeing solid (but not mindblowing) gains. BTC up a solid 3.5%, ETH flat and SOL up a nice 15%. On the downside FET saw itself lose 13% along side big losses in Pendle and WLD.

Sentiment continues to rise this week with the Fear & Greed index back in the greed zone. However, market trading volume is down this week and relatively flat over the last month.

Today in the news

• Mt. Gox shifts $2.5B in Bitcoin to unknown wallet, with $335M transferred to Bitstamp and $3B moved to a new wallet, causing Bitcoin to dip below $66,000 amid creditor payouts.

• Bitcoin firm Fold plans to go public in a $365 million SPAC deal and eyes Nasdaq listing.

• Ethereum ETFs hit $107 million inflows on debut, with US spot Ethereum ETFs seeing net inflows of $106.7 million on the first trading day.

• Bitcoin mining firm Riot Platforms acquires Block Mining in a $92.5 million deal to expand operations, while also scooping a small Kentucky rival for $92 million as the sector sags.

• Bitcoin price to retest $72K as it sets up $7B liquidation showdown, with Bitcoin regaining $66,000 but facing Mt. Gox selling pressure.

• Bitcoin startup Alby unveils ‘one-click’ Lightning app store with new ‘Hub’ service, while the firm behind Proton Mail unveils a self-custodial Bitcoin wallet.

• Kamala Harris 'will not be speaking' at Bitcoin conference, with her memecoin going 100x in 3 months as pump intensifies.

• AgriDex completes first agricultural RWA trade on Solana, transforming cross-border agricultural trade.

Bitcoin Macro Signals

We all know where bitcoin goes the crypto market follows. Bitcoin is a great predictor of the market in general. Lets talk about 5 bitcoin macro signals that we are looking at to provide an idea of where the overall market is headed.

1 - Miner Capitulation: Bullish

After a halving miners start to shut down as rewards lessen and older machines with less hashrate become unprofitable. Once the capitulation bottoms out we start to see the hashrate rising again. Rising hashrate is one of the most bullish indicators. Hash rate has bottomed and is starting to rise as hardware upgrades are being deployed.

2 - Puell Multiple: Bullish 

This shows miner profitability in relation to previous profitability. When this bottoms out it generally kicks off a bullrun. Miners should start to gain profitability from here. Good time to buy miner stocks or BTC.

3 - Global Liquidity: Bullish

The biggest indicator in BTC price is global liquidity. These levels essentially mirror bitcoin price chart. As liquidity rises and the risk-free rate decreases tradfi operators and retail start to purchase assets higher on the risk curve i.e. crypto. Global liquidity appears to be bottoming out. China and parts of the EU have already started rate cuts and I expect it to increase dramatically over the next 2 years.

4 - Exchange Flows and Inventory: Bearish

We are seeing a high level of flows from cold storage to exchanges. This can be bearish has it often indicates people are transferring with the intention of selling. However, a big part of this flow is due to the Mt Gox disbursement and the German Government sell off. Both of these should be worked through by the end of this month.

5 - ETH ETF Launch: Bearish for BTC specifically

The launch of the ETH ETF’s could pull some capital flow from Bitcoin to Ethereum. This will only affect BTC and not negatively affect the crypto market as a whole. Not overly concerned about this as its an isolated incident but it could have some short term price effect on Bitcoin.

READING CORNER

A collection of longer form content we are consuming this week 

BLOCKBUZZ

Quick Hitters from the week

• Biden's Exit Spurs Record Volume on Polymarket: Daily volume hits $28M as U.S. presidential election betting surges past $300 million, with significant wagers on Democratic nominee and VP candidates.

• Metaplanet's Bitcoin Boost Yields Gains: Japanese firm Metaplanet sees a 19% rise after completing a 1 billion yen Bitcoin purchase, as reported in a company release.

• Solana Welcomes New Tokenization Firm Libre: Backed by Nomura and Brevan Howard, Libre introduces a blockchain-based Hamilton Lane SCOPE senior credit fund, available on Solana and Ethereum-compatible chains.

• Base Network Enables Crypto Donations for U.S. Politicians: New on-chain platform allows U.S. politicians to receive cryptocurrency donations.

• BlockFi's Customer Repayment Plan Submitted in Court: Administrator proposes a plan to ensure a near-term final distribution of 100% for all eligible claims.

• Spot Ethereum ETFs Begin Trading Today: Key information about the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs as they start trading.

• JPMorgan Predicts Temporary Crypto Market Rebound: Warns that any near-term recovery in the crypto market is likely to be short-lived due to Bitcoin's high price relative to production cost and volatility-adjusted comparison to gold.

• Superstate Launches New Tokenized Fund: Debuts a fund focused on profiting from Bitcoin and Ether carry trades, following the success of its first tokenized fund of short-term U.S. Treasury bills.

THE TWITTERVERSE

A collection of the most interesting stuff on Crypto Twitter this week

Some solid Bull Porn from Miles. Good reminders if you are feeling negative about the market.

Nick is an OG in the space. His PDF shares some useful tools for learning about the stablecoin space

Not directly about crypto but read the Tea Leaves. If you dollar implodes the value of crypto vs fiat will explode

WAGMI

For the (crypto) Culture

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