The Phenom Crypto Letter

GM,

If some of you are wondering why this showed up a bit later than usual, I apologize. My life is been more volatile than your favorite shitcoin this week. I lost my computer on a flight this week and just got to the apple store this morning to replace it. Hammering out the newsletter as fast as I can this morning to hit the deadline.

Pretty tepid week in the markets. Fear and Greed is back to neutral for the first time in months as everyone awaits the Bitcoin halving. Hopefully the old saying April showers bring May flowers also applies to financial markets.

Here’s what we’ve got this week:

• NEVER SELL!

• What is Runes?

• BTC pre-halving dip

Market Rundown

After a modest recovery from yesterday's low of approximately $61.6k, Bitcoin is now retesting the lower boundaries of its March range. The lowest daily close last month occurred on March 19, at slightly under $62k. Today's broader market downturn positions Bitcoin potentially to dip below that mark, despite it being only 18% below its peak record. Bitcoin recently hit $60k near noon ET, yet the market hasn't entered a state of panic. Investors with available capital are keenly watching, suggesting further market corrections might be imminent. Typically, market bottoms are reached when the consensus believes the downturn is at its worst, often accompanied by a visceral unease among buyers.

Top Movers:

• (-) Ordinals ($ORDI) -38% On the Runes protocol launch hype.

• (-) Ethena ($ENA) -34% Ethena down this week after rallying on its launch hype.

• (+) Ondo ($ONDO) +7% Ondo continues its bullish rise, up almost 100% on the month.

• (-) THORchain($RUNE) +32% RUNE continues to tank as whales exit the protocol

What We Are Reading This Week

Ready to elevate your investing journey to new heights?

Unlock the power of informed decision-making with our daily newsletter, tailored to empower investors like you. The Early Bird delivers crucial insights that keep you ahead in the stock market, ensuring you make profitable decisions.

Why Join The Early Bird?

• Join millions who trust us

• Discover daily recommendations

• Unlock hidden opportunities

• Make informed investment decisions

Receive our #1 stock tip every day at 6:59 am – absolutely FREE!

Never SELL

TLDR: HODL

In a popular study of Fidelity client portfolios spanning from 2003 to 2013, it was initially believed that the best-performing investors were deceased individuals who never traded. However, this turned out to be a legend spread through word of mouth and media outlets, with no such study ever existing. Nevertheless, the concept resonates with many investors, including those who have experienced regret over past sales like Broadcom, Facebook, and Nvidia.

Prominent investors like Seth Klarman, Gavin Baker, and Robert Buckland advocate for a long-term investment approach, emphasizing the benefits of letting winners run. While the legendary Fidelity study remains anecdotal, there are examples like Berkshire Hathaway's consistent outperformance under Buffett's forever-holding strategy.

One notable anecdote is the "Coffee Can Portfolio" strategy, where a client's refusal to sell resulted in a sizable and concentrated portfolio upon their passing. This strategy, aligned with the never-sell philosophy, has sparked interest in exploring its merits further, especially as technology moguls push for post-mortem ownership rights.

In the crypto realm, the HODL culture mirrors the never-sell mindset, albeit with varying degrees of success given the market's volatility. While liquidity is often seen as a positive, non-liquidity premiums in traditional investments underscore the value of resisting impulsive actions driven by "animal spirits."

Investors are advised to approach investments with a long-term mindset, resisting the urge to constantly monitor and trade. Strategies like pretending to be dead or investing as if checking portfolios once a year can help maintain discipline and potentially lead to significant gains over time.

RUNES Launch

If you are on crypto twitter you’ve probably seen your favorite influencer yelling about Runes. Runes is a new crypto protocol designed by Casey Rodarmor, the creator of Ordinals, scheduled to launch concurrently with Bitcoin's upcoming halving. This innovative protocol introduces the concept of fungible tokens, self proclaimed "shtcoins" on the Bitcoin network. Unlike most tokens which are typically built on Ethereum or other blockchains, Runes leverages the Bitcoin blockchain directly.

The core excitement around Runes stems from its utilization of Bitcoin's Ordinals, which essentially inscribes data directly onto Bitcoin's blocks. This allows for unique types of tokens or "shtcoins" to be created within the Bitcoin ecosystem, potentially enriching its diversity and utility. The introduction of Runes is perceived as a significant development as it opens up new possibilities for tokenization on the world's oldest and most secure blockchain.

The community's enthusiasm is fueled by the possibilities of integrating more complex applications directly on Bitcoin, a domain that has been traditionally limited due to its design focusing on security and stability over flexibility. By enabling new forms of tokens while maintaining the integrity and security of the Bitcoin network, Runes could significantly alter how developers and investors view the potential of Bitcoin for diverse decentralized applications.

The launch of Runes at the time of the Bitcoin halving is particularly noteworthy. Halving events, which cut the reward for mining new blocks in half and occur approximately every four years, have historically been significant for Bitcoin, often correlating with increased market activity and price movements.

The introduction of Runes is eagerly anticipated as it promises to bring new functionalities to the Bitcoin network, expanding its capabilities beyond just a currency to potentially hosting a variety of financial and non-financial applications directly on its blockchain. We will be keeping an eye on this space. Any innovations that expand the BTC eco system have the potential to be huge as they benefit from the massive amount of liquidity present in BTC.

BlockBuzz™️

Quick Hitters from the week

• Exploring Runes: Bitcoin's New Token Protocol: Unveils a fungible token standard that enhances the existing BRC-20 on Bitcoin, aiming for broader utility and efficiency.

• Blockchain's Industrial Impact: Insights from Venom Blockchain: An interview that delves into how blockchain technology is transforming various modern industries.

• EY Adopts Polygon PoS for Business Contracts: 'Big Four' accounting firm chooses Polygon's proof of stake to streamline and secure its contract processes.

• Anticipation Builds for Bitcoin's Low-Key Halving: Dubbed the most promising yet understated event, Bitcoin’s upcoming halving is set to redefine its valuation dynamics.

• Coinbase and Grayscale's Halving Hype: Roll out new TV commercials just in time to capture the buzz around Bitcoin’s halving event.

• Bitcoin's Pre-Halving Dip: Price falls below $62,000 as anticipation for the upcoming halving loses steam.

• TON's Growing Presence on Telegram: TON Foundation reports significant progress in embedding the TON-based economy within Telegram's ecosystem.

• A16z Secures $7.2 Billion: Raises substantial funds aimed at enhancing American Dynamism, Apps, Games, Infrastructure, and Growth sectors.

• Crypto Market Reacts to Powell's Stance: Prices drop as Fed Chair Powell emphasizes a delay in interest rate cuts.

• Bored Ape NFT Prices Plummet: Value drops to August 2022 levels, declining 90% from their peak.

The Twitterverse

A collection of the most interesting stuff on Crypto Twitter this week

WAGMI

For the Crypto Culture

📣 Want FREE access to Phenom Premium? 📣

Share Phenom Crypto Letter with your friends using the link below. For every 10 subscribers you refer you will get a free month of Phenom Premium!

Click the link below to refer