Early Cycle Jitters

As we go through a bit of a shake out with BTC this week its easy to get freaked out by the 10% draw down. While obviously markets are often unpredictable and nuanced it can be useful to simplify and create a heuristic of likely probabilities based on past performance. Let’s take a look at where we may be.

Below is a great graphic from @hmalviya9 laying out a general roadmap for this market. The last few months have been what he calls the Disbelief Rally with BTC has rallying to reach local highs. He believes we may see a cool off period but shortly we could see BTC break the next psychological level and drive us into the next phase.

Here’s a TLDR of the roadmap laid out by @hmalviya9

• Phase 1: The Genesis ☀️

  • - BTC will run

  • - A few frontrunner alts will pump

  Phase 2: Disbelief Rally 🐻

  • - Market's bearish, eyes on Bitcoin < $25K.

  • - Missed opportunities? Altcoins rising 📈.

  • - Fundamental and on-chain analysis = 🗝️ to profit.

  Phase 3: Bitcoin's Big Break 💥

  • - Bitcoin aiming for $50K+.

  • - Altcoins might dip 📉, but Bitcoin's set to soar 🚀.

  Phase 4: Diversify and Hype 🌈

  • - Ethereum shines, altcoin party starts 🎉.

  • - Diversify: yes! Chase hype: risky! 🚧

  • - Time to pocket some profits? 💸

  Phase 5: The Crash Landing 📉

  • - Euphoria fades, market drops.

  • - Newbies stuck with losses 💔.

  • - Cryptos under fire again 🔥.

This is a fairly general roadmap but mirrors closely what happened during the last couple crypto cycles and what tends to happen during bull market bubbles due to human psychology.

As someone deeply involved in the cryptocurrency space, I've observed and navigated through various market cycles, each with its unique characteristics and challenges. In my experience, the key to surviving altseason with your profits is timing, analysis, and adaptation. While the allure of quick profits is strong, understanding these phases and approaching them with a strategy is key. Utilizing tools like Arkham, Token Terminal, and DeFiLlama can provide an edge, but the real skill lies in knowing when to enter, when to diversify, and crucially, when to exit. If you are set on chasing big alt profits sell when everyone is feeling euphoric and don’t get left holding the bag.

Tune in next week, I’ll be discussing my current portfolio. I’ll go into what I am personally holding right now and projects I’m either farming or planning to buy when tokens are launched.

Cheers,

Will

Celestia Ecosystem Airdrop Guide 🪂

The rise of Celestia has led to a rapid increase in ecosystem projects and on-chain activity. This should increase the probability of airdrops over the next year. A popular way for ecosystem projects to gain traction and users is to airdrop to token holders of chain they are building on. In this case, $TIA. We’ve already seen this on Celestia and should see more over the next year and one simple way to qualify is the stake $TIA.

Step 1: Purchase $TIA. You can do this easily through primary exchanges like Coinbase.

Step 2: Once you have $TIA you will need to withdraw them to a compatible wallet. We recommend Keplr Wallet for its simple in-wallet staking options.

Step 3: Stake $TIA via a validator using the in-wallet Kelpr Dashboard. Simply go to your $TIA balance, scroll down to Staking and choose a validator. We recommend Coinbase Cloud validator.

Once you have staked you will start automatically receiving staking rewards. This will give you direct access to qualifying for future Celestia airdrops and ecosystem drops.

If you want to further increase your chances for ecosystem airdrops explore the ecosystem projects on Celestia and actively participate in the protocols. A few to focus on that have already confirmed future airdrops are Dymension, Milkyway Zone, Dokicoin and Movementlabs

Happy hunting!

BlockBuzz™️

Quick Hitters from the week

• Speculative Gains for Bitcoin ETFs: Investors who bought the rumor see rewards as Ethereum gears up for a similar scenario.

• Bitcoin's Shock Drop: Experiences dramatic fluctuations, showcasing both soaring highs and sudden lows.

• Circle's IPO Ambitions Resurface: After ditching a SPAC merger in 2022, the stablecoin giant files for an initial public offering.

• Hester Peirce's SEC Critique: Laments a lost decade of missed opportunities in the crypto space.

• Berachain's Layer-1 Testnet Debut: Launches amidst a bear-dominated market, opening new possibilities in blockchain testing.

  

The Twitterverse

A collection of the most interesting stuff on Crypto Twitter this week

WAGMI

For the Crypto Culture

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.d