Unlocking the Messari Annual Report

The Phenom Weekly Update

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Hey Phenoms,

We are so back! Ok, We arenโ€™t quite back to the bull market stage where your grandparents are asking you about Bitcoin at the dinner table but we hope every one is having a great Holiday Season!

Weโ€™ve got some fun stuff this week:

Market Rundown

Phenom Ventures Founder on Real Visionโ„ข๏ธ

Ericโ€™s interview this week isnโ€™t directly crypto related but he highlights some mining investment opportunities. If you are interested in this sector, check out our metals and mining publication The Gold Investment Letter

Key Takeaways from the Messari Annual Report

Messari released their all encompassing annual report this week. If you areโ€™t familiar, this 200 page report is a forwarding looking guidance on where the industry is going over the next year. We dove into it this week and wanted to share a few of the key highlights from the Investment Trends section.

๐Ÿ“ˆ Bitcoin & Digital Gold:

Long story short, BTC is still King. Messari thinks btc will continue to outperform. Below are some of the main points of their case.

  • - ๐Ÿ“… Current Context: Similar to Jan 2015 and Dec 2018; a potential high-value investment period.

  • - ๐Ÿš€ Long-Term Attraction: Bitcoin's appeal over time is strong, despite short-term unpredictability.

  • - ๐Ÿฆ Economic Uncertainties: Federal Reserve's actions and potential recession impact are unknown.

  • - ๐Ÿ“Š MVRV Analysis: With a 1.3 MVRV, Bitcoin is not in deep value territory, but still a reasonable buy.

  • - ๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Bitcoin Dominance: Likely to lead recoveries; dominance has fluctuated but room for growth exists.

  • - ๐Ÿ”„ ETF Influence: Bitcoin ETFs may distort MVRV ratios; bitcoin's dominance may increase.

  • - ๐Ÿง Skepticism on Ethereum's "ultrasound money" narrative.

  • - ๐Ÿ… Bitcoin vs. Gold: Potential for bitcoin to match or exceed gold's value. At current parity that would mean $600k BTC

๐Ÿ”— ETH & The World Computer:

Ryan at Messari has been catching a bunch of flak this week after tweating out this section of the report basically saying Eth is too dominate and that it will underperform vs other competitors. He is getting roasted by Eth Maxis but we think his investment thesis is correct.

  • - ๐ŸŒ Ethereum's Advances: Successful "Merge" and "Shapella" upgrades.

  • - ๐Ÿ”ป Ethereum's Position: Struggles to outperform both Bitcoin and emerging blockchain networks.

  • - ๐Ÿ”„ Market Dynamics: Ethereum faces competition from newer, potentially more agile networks.

  • - ๐Ÿ“‰ Relative Performance: Bearish on Ethereum's relative performance, despite its resilience and technical successes.

๐Ÿค– AI & Crypto: Money for the Machines

AI is everywhere right now. There have been some exciting runs in this sector already but it will continue to be a hot performing area.

  • - ๐ŸŒ Digital Era: Importance of crypto for verifying digital content in the AI age.

  • - ๐Ÿ•ต๏ธโ€โ™‚๏ธ Deep Fakes & Verification: Crypto's role in authenticating and timestamping data.

  • - ๐Ÿ“ˆ AI's Boost to Crypto: AI advancements are expected to increase demand for crypto solutions.

  • - ๐Ÿ’ก Bitcoin & AI: Bitcoin viewed as an ideal currency for AI due to its energy value stability.

  • - ๐Ÿ”„ AI and Blockchain Interaction: AI may prefer blockchains with lower costs and latency.

  • - ๐Ÿ“Š Crypto Projects & AI: Focus on crypto projects that benefit from AI integration.

๐Ÿš€ Three New De's: DePIN, DeSoc, DeSci

  • - ๐ŸŒ Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Cautious optimism despite regulatory challenges and market volatility.

  • - ๐Ÿ›ฐ๏ธ DePIN (Physical Infrastructure Networks): Potential for significant growth in decentralized cloud services.

  • - ๐Ÿ“ฑ DeSoc (Social Media): Emerging potential in decentralized social media platforms.

  • - ๐Ÿ”ฌ DeSci (Decentralized Science): Crypto's role in revolutionizing scientific research and funding.

  • - ๐Ÿ“ˆ Market Potential: Huge opportunities in decentralized solutions for cloud services, social media, and science.

BlockBuzzโ„ข๏ธ

Quick Hitters from the week

The Twitterverse

A collection of the most interesting stuff on Crypto Twitter this week

If you have staked ETH it may be a good time to restake it on EigenLayer

$TIA has been making waves this week. Hereโ€™s a Thread on it

WAGMI

For the Crypto Culture

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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