GM,

Welcome to this week's Phenom Weekly Update, we are diving into the relationship between global money supply and Bitcoin price. Recent analyses highlight a strong correlation between the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin's price, suggesting that we might be in for a good summer.

In other news:

• Ethereum Faces Market Pressure: Ethereum's price has dipped below key support levels amid a significant sell-off fueling the “ETH IS DEAD” narrative on X. Spoiler: ETH isn’t dead.

• Regulatory Developments: President Trump has signed a bill nullifying the expanded IRS crypto broker rule, a move that could have significant implications for decentralized exchanges and the broader crypto regulatory landscape

Keep scrolling for more of the latest news, videos and memes. Thanks for being here and we hope you enjoy this weeks update!

Where is Bitcoin Heading?

Raoul Pal has a chart floating around on X that shows the global money supply hitting a bottom a few months ago and now spiking upward. As Raoul points out Bitcoin’s price seems to tag along, lagging behind by a couple of months. Bitcoin’s just waiting for the money printers to do their thing before it decides to join the party. Let’s break down what it might mean over the next few months.

The Money Supply

So, M2 (think cash, savings and easy access money) gets pumped up when central banks start loosening the taps. When that happens people get more comfy on the risk curve and start moving their cash in to stuff like Bitcoin. Here’s how it works:

• Risk-On Mode: Extra liquidity makes everyone feel bold

• Dollar Dip: When M2 climbs, the dollar often weakens a nd Bitcoin tends to perk up.

Raoul’s chart shows M2 with a 12-week lead over Bitcoin, and the pattern’s pretty correlated. When M2 bottomed earlier this year, Bitcoin followed right behind on a 12 week lag. Now that M2’s on a sharp upswing if the correlation holds bitcoin is due to start heading up.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Since M2’s been climbing hard lately, we expect Bitcoin to follow suit over the next few months.

• Price: If global liquidity keeps rising, Bitcoin should be in for a great second half of the year.

• Volatility: Volatility is the name of the game so don’t be shocked by dips.

• Money Supply: If central banks keep printing Bitcoin’s got a green light. If they tighten up it might stall.

So, yeah, it’s all about keeping an eye on the M2 curve and hopefully we see a corresponding rise in Bitcoin over the next few months.

READING CORNER

A collection of longer form content we are consuming this week 

Cheat Code: Just follow the Global Money Supply

NEWS

Quick Hitters from the week

1. AWS Outage Disrupts Major Crypto Exchanges
   An Amazon Web Services (AWS) outage caused major operational issues for several top crypto exchanges, highlighting the industry’s ongoing dependence on centralized infrastructure. 🔗 Read more

2. KiloEx DEX Offers $750K Bounty to Hacker After Exploit
   Decentralized exchange KiloEx is offering a $750,000 bounty to the hacker responsible for a recent exploit, in exchange for the return of stolen funds and a full vulnerability disclosure. 🔗 Read more

3. Mantra Crashes Hard, But It’s Not a Terra-Luna Repeat
   Despite OM's sudden price collapse, Mantra developers argue the project’s fundamentals and token design bear no resemblance to Terra-Luna's disastrous mechanics. 🔗 Read more

4. Ethereum Market Dominance Nears Historic Lows
   Ethereum’s share of the crypto market has dropped significantly, as ETH underperforms and faces downside risks amid weakening demand and rising competition. 🔗 Read more

5. Pakistan Appoints CZ as Strategic Crypto Advisor
   Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has reportedly been named a strategic advisor on crypto policy to the Pakistani government, raising eyebrows amid his ongoing legal troubles in the U.S. 🔗 Read more

6. DOJ Shuts Down Crypto Unit as Trump’s Deregulation Push Continues
   The U.S. Department of Justice has quietly dismantled its specialized crypto enforcement unit, signaling a continued rollback of crypto regulation under the Trump administration. 🔗 Read more

7. Grayscale: Tariffs and Trade Tensions Could Boost Bitcoin Adoption
   According to Grayscale, escalating global trade tensions and U.S. tariffs may drive more investors toward Bitcoin in the medium term as a hedge against geopolitical and economic instability. 🔗 Read more

8. Trump Signs Bill Repealing IRS Rule Targeting DeFi
   President Trump has officially signed a bill repealing an IRS rule that required DeFi platforms to report user transactions, marking a major win for the decentralized finance industry. 🔗 Read more

THE TWITTERVERSE

A collection of the most interesting stuff on Crypto Twitter this week

Been waiting for this!

Been preaching Bittensor for a year now. Over a long enough time horizon I think it eats everything

MEMES

For the (crypto) Culture

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