The Phenom Crypto Letter

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Here’s what we’ve got this week:

• Will my token 100X?

• Balaji on what the BTC ETF means

• Market Rundown

Market Rundown

The market continues its sideways push w/ Fear and Greed stuck in neutral and overall trade volume and market cap staying relatively flat. The vibes feel negative but there is some positive news. A large swath of tokens are up significantly on the weekly chart 10%-30%. Last week was probably the local bottom.

Top Movers:

• (-) Wormhole ($W) -5% Wormhole continues to slowly bleed after its hyped launch. The Bears are still in charge of this one.

• (-)Sui Network ($SUI) -5% Sui down after some drama surrounding their tokenomics and how they handle their token storage.

• (+) Render Network ($RNDR) +32% Render has surged this week along w/ other AI narrative tokens as AI becomes a hot topic again an anticipation of OpenAI announcements incoming.

• (+) AIOZ Network ($AIOZ) +34% AIOZ surges after being listed on Bithumb

Is your token going to 100x?

Every investor dreams of finding that one gem with astronomical returns—often hoping for a 100x gain. But is such a massive leap truly realistic? Understanding whether your chosen token holds this potential requires a blend of calculated analysis and strategic foresight.

Assessing the Potential for 100x Returns

1. Estimate Future Circulating Supply

The first step in this analysis is estimating the future circulating supply of the cryptocurrency at the peak of the next bull run. For instance, let’s consider November 2025 as a potential peak, based on current market cycles. This is admittedly speculative and depends significantly on market conditions and individual cryptocurrency mechanics. For example, if you were to analyze Aptos (APT), you'd find that by November 2025, the circulating supply is projected to be around 548 million tokens.

2. Calculate Future Market Caps

Next, look at historical data from past bull runs to gauge potential future market caps. Cryptocurrencies like Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) reached market caps of $94 billion and $78 billion respectively in the 2021 bull run. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) hit even higher caps in 2017. These figures help set a benchmark but must be adjusted for the increasing number of competing Layer 1 (L1) solutions and the overall growth of the crypto market.

For L1 cryptocurrencies, reasonable market cap targets for 2025 might look like this:

• $10 billion: Moderate success

• $25 billion: Successful

• $50 billion: Highly successful

• $100 billion: Extraordinarily successful

3. Project Prices

With these market caps and the estimated circulating supply, you can start projecting future prices. For APT, dividing the possible market caps by the projected supply for 2025 provides a range of potential prices. By comparing these projected prices to the current price, you can calculate the possible multiples—be it a 2x, 24x, or even an unlikely 36x increase.

Realistic Expectations and Strategic Planning

This simple analytical approach grounds your expectations in realism. For instance, the projections for APT indicate that expecting a 100x return by 2025 is highly improbable. This sort of analysis, when applied across various cryptocurrencies, can prevent disappointment and foster more informed investment strategies.

For specialized sectors like gaming cryptocurrencies, adjust the analysis to fit the sector's dynamics. Market caps for top-performing gaming tokens, which are generally lower than those for L1s, require different benchmarks.

Conclusion

While the dream of 100x gains is alluring, thorough analysis and realistic projections are essential. By understanding the underlying factors like circulating supply and potential market caps, investors can set realistic expectations and make more strategic investment choices. This method doesn't just apply to a single token but can be adapted to various assets, ensuring that your investment decisions are well-informed and more likely to result in success.

Reading Corner

Overwhelmed by all the content you could be reading? Don’t worry, We’ve got you. Reading Corner is a list of articles, videos or newsletters we are reading this week.

BlockBuzz™️

Quick Hitters from the week

• Gensler on SEC's Crypto Focus: Attributes heightened SEC attention on crypto to disproportionate media interest relative to its market cap.

• Court May Decide Fate of US Ether ETFs: Legal experts suggest that Consensys' lawsuit against the SEC might be pivotal in resolving the status of spot ether ETFs.

• Memecoins: Crypto's Leading Trend: Despite the buzz around halvings and ETFs, memecoins remain the most influential narrative in the cryptocurrency space.

• Robinhood Crypto Receives Wells Notice from SEC: Faces potential regulatory action over alleged securities violations.

• Ethereum Gas Fees Hit Yearly Low: Lower transaction costs contribute to a decreased ETH burn rate.

• Crypto Venture Funding Maintains Momentum: Achieves $1 billion in funding for the second consecutive month, marking a significant rebound since late 2022.

• Bitcoin Milestone: One Billion Transactions: Surpasses a billion transactions processed, eight hundred weeks post-launch.

• Eigen Foundation Responds to Airdrop Criticism: Announces distribution of an additional 100 EIGEN tokens to placate holders after backlash.

• Pantera Capital's Strategic Investment in TON: Forecasts significant Web3 potential for Telegram through its integration with TON, enhancing services for nearly 900 million monthly users.

The Twitterverse

A collection of the most interesting stuff on Crypto Twitter this week

WAGMI

For the Crypto Culture

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